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Klark

Democratic Primaries from here

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Posts: 928

05-07-08 8:26 PM

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So, there are six primaries left, and according to the polls, the candidates will split them. Assuming things don't change much, here is how I expect the count to spill out:

West Virginia (28)

Obama 12 / Clinton 16

(Polls say Clinton leads at 56% to 27%)

Kentucky (51)

Obama 23 / Clinton 28

(Polls say Clinton leads at 56% to 31%)

Oregon (52)

Obama 29 / Clinton 23

(Polls say Obama leads 51% to 39%)

Puerto Rico (55)

Obama 27 / Clinton 28

(Polls say Clinton leads 50% to 37%)

Montana (16)

Obama 11 / Clinton 5

(No recent polls/ Obama won ID, WA)

South Dakota (15)

Obama 9 / Clinton 6

(Polls say Obama leads at 46% to 34%)

Obama +111

Clinton +106

So, neither can get to 2025. If Obama wins all the primaries with 60% of the vote, he could not reach 2025. No matter what, the superdelegates will decided the nomination.

There are about 300 superdelegates left, and Obama needs about 70 new superdelegates. Can he get that many? Pretty obvious, considering the current pace of elections and superdelegate flow. Hillary would need over 233 of those superdelegates. Possible? Unlikely but feasible if the party hacks decided to support the old guard despite the popular vote.

So, do you consider this over because Obama will probably get at least 24% of the remaining superdelegates? Also, why don't the superdelegates announce their preference immediately after the primaries? If they are for Obama, why not just speak up and close it for their choice?

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Cinabre

#1

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05-07-08 8:30 PM

Big Blue Cat in Warrior Garb

I don't consider it over since Florida and Michigan are not considered into your scenario.

Many times in battle, one might lose their mind, their life, their soul. What makes them a Marine is that they entered combat knowing the price they might pay, and chose to enter it anyway.

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Kayso Gnomehater

#2

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05-07-08 9:17 PM

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CNN for once did something useful Tuesday night and showed a nifty horizontal bar chart. Clinton needs like 70% of the remaining delegates and the lion's share of super delegates. It's a long road.

But, there is hope for her. Right now polls show her beating McCain in a general election in Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Florida while they show Obama would lose. There is conjecture this is mostly temporary due to Wrightgate and/or Bittergate. So, IF she can at least split the remaining delegates, and IF she can go Rove on Obama with a few more "gates", and IF the polling for general elections in Ohio, Pensylvania, anf Florida hold, and IF she can get a good ruling from the Rules Committee (meeting w/ Dean in a couple of weeks) concerning Florida and Michigan, she might be able to convince the lion's share of Super Delegates who are undecided to go her way.

I think an unfavorable ruling from the rules committee at the end of this month and/or another NC-style loss will be enough to finish her.

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Afmo

#3

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05-07-08 9:26 PM

Properly Equipped

i think your state by state is a fair assesment, but i think Cin is right, I think Florida and Michigan are going to come in to play before this is over...

Operation Self Defense

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Cinabre

#4

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Posts: 3055

05-07-08 10:01 PM

Big Blue Cat in Warrior Garb

Kayso Gnomehater wrote:
I think an unfavorable ruling from the rules committee at the end of this month and/or another NC-style loss will be enough to finish her.

100% agree. If she doesn't make it past that hurdle, it's game over.

Many times in battle, one might lose their mind, their life, their soul. What makes them a Marine is that they entered combat knowing the price they might pay, and chose to enter it anyway.

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Klark

#5

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Posts: 928

05-07-08 10:10 PM

Afmo wrote:
i think your state by state is a fair assesment, but i think Cin is right, I think Florida and Michigan are going to come in to play before this is over...

Well, let's look at details...

If the Democratic party allows Florida and Michigan at (the worse case for Obama and best for Hillary) the percentages from the early primaries, Hillary only gains a net of 56 and moves the needed delegates to 2209 instead of 2025. That still leaves Obama in the lead with no one close to the requirement. STILL, the superdelegates will decided and Obama will only need 35% of the remaining superdelegates to win the nomination. Are you saying that it's a big deal that Obama goes from needing 24% to 34% and that gives Hillary more of a chance?

I don't see this as a meaning issue. It will help Hillary's odds, but I think the backlash would negate these gains. I think, if she got these two states, more superdelegates would vote for Obama just to counteract what they may see as an improper change in the rules.

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Klark

#6

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05-07-08 10:17 PM

Kayso Gnomehater wrote:
I think an unfavorable ruling from the rules committee at the end of this month and/or another NC-style loss will be enough to finish her.

Why another NC-style loss? If she wins WV and KY (even by a small margin) she will not care if she lost the remaining four big time. If he swept the last four, he STILL cannot win by basic delegates, and we know he cannot swept the last four. I don't see Obama getting over 2000 delegates without more superdelegates. No matter what (NC-style losses, no FL/MI, etc.) happens it will come down to superdelegates and the only details is if they come out before or at the convention.

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Afmo

#7

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05-07-08 10:17 PM

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i just think that the clinton machine wont give up quite so easily...i honestly do believe that the race is still up in the air, even with obamas lead...and nothing will be decided until the DNC....

Operation Self Defense

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Klark

#8

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05-07-08 10:25 PM

Afmo wrote:
i just think that the clinton machine wont give up quite so easily...i honestly do believe that the race is still up in the air, even with obamas lead...and nothing will be decided until the DNC....

Yup, I just get irritated by the news all day today saying "Hillary cannot possibly win..." without mentioning that Obama cannot win either by the votes. The only way Obama can win is by superdelegates.

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Kayso Gnomehater

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05-08-08 1:01 AM

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Klark wrote:

Kayso Gnomehater wrote:
I think an unfavorable ruling from the rules committee at the end of this month and/or another NC-style loss will be enough to finish her.

Why another NC-style loss? If she wins WV and KY (even by a small margin) she will not care if she lost the remaining four big time. If he swept the last four, he STILL cannot win by basic delegates, and we know he cannot swept the last four. I don't see Obama getting over 2000 delegates without more superdelegates. No matter what (NC-style losses, no FL/MI, etc.) happens it will come down to superdelegates and the only details is if they come out before or at the convention.

Because the super delegate hold outs are looking for three things: Favors, momentum, and best ability to beat McCain in the general. If the momentum swings heavily his way and/or his polling vs. McCain in Florida/Ohio/Pennsylvania improves, they will run with that. Enough of them to win it for him at least.

I'm not going to say McGovern is the benchmark for relevance anymore, but his defection won't be the last unless everything starts to go her way from now on.

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Cinabre

#10

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05-08-08 7:01 AM

Big Blue Cat in Warrior Garb

Cinabre wrote:

Kayso Gnomehater wrote:
I think an unfavorable ruling from the rules committee at the end of this month and/or another NC-style loss will be enough to finish her.

100% agree. If she doesn't make it past that hurdle, it's game over.

Didn't have time to complete my thoughts. While it would be game over if she doesn't make it past the rules committee for seating the Florida and Michigan delegates, I think they will split the delegates from those two states favoring Hillary. Once that is done, she might, depending on how the rest of the primaries go, have more popular vote than Obama. If she does, she will certainly use that and Obama's failure to win the white working class vote as a means to sway super-delegates. Obama would scream bloody murder if she tries this, but she can rightly claim that the agreement was that none of the Democrat candidates would campaign in Florida and Michagan, not that they would not be on the ballot. Obama pulled his name from the Michigan ballot and that might hurt him in the long run given the tricks the Clinton's are likely to pull.

Many times in battle, one might lose their mind, their life, their soul. What makes them a Marine is that they entered combat knowing the price they might pay, and chose to enter it anyway.

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Aielman KajiraLiege

#11

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Posts: 4674

05-08-08 8:01 AM

Kayso Gnomehater wrote:
CNN for once did something useful Tuesday night and showed a nifty horizontal bar chart. Clinton needs like 70% of the remaining delegates and the lion's share of super delegates. It's a long road.

But, there is hope for her. Right now polls show her beating McCain in a general election in Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Florida while they show Obama would lose. There is conjecture this is mostly temporary due to Wrightgate and/or Bittergate. So, IF she can at least split the remaining delegates, and IF she can go Rove on Obama with a few more "gates", and IF the polling for general elections in Ohio, Pensylvania, anf Florida hold, and IF she can get a good ruling from the Rules Committee (meeting w/ Dean in a couple of weeks) concerning Florida and Michigan, she might be able to convince the lion's share of Super Delegates who are undecided to go her way.

I think an unfavorable ruling from the rules committee at the end of this month and/or another NC-style loss will be enough to finish her.

She's got a good arguement going into the DNC. She won all of the rust belt except for Obama's home state. She won NY, MA, CA and Florida. Anyone does that in the general election, they've won. That's a strong arguement to make with the Superdelegates, regardless of whether or not they actually count Florida and Michigan.

So I feel fairly certain this will be a fight right up to the convention...and I think she still has a chance.

peace,
Aielman

"There are no stupid questions...but there certainly are a LOT of inquisitive idiots"

Husband, Father, Squisher of bugs.
aka Bret

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Cafu07

#12

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05-08-08 8:28 AM

Klark wrote:

Afmo wrote:
i just think that the clinton machine wont give up quite so easily...i honestly do believe that the race is still up in the air, even with obamas lead...and nothing will be decided until the DNC....

Yup, I just get irritated by the news all day today saying "Hillary cannot possibly win..." without mentioning that Obama cannot win either by the votes. The only way Obama can win is by superdelegates.

I think it's funny that everyone's come around and now she can't win. Nothing has changed. She couldn't win a month ago before Pennsylvania and several of us pointed it out at that time.

What are you talking about with the Obama can't win either stuff? Obama has already won. There's just a bunch of superdelegates out there that are waiting because they want to appear that they remained neutral until the end. Hillary is going down in this election, but that's no reason for them to piss off the Clintons when that could come back to bite them in the ass later.

Cinabre wrote:
Didn't have time to complete my thoughts. While it would be game over if she doesn't make it past the rules committee for seating the Florida and Michigan delegates, I think they will split the delegates from those two states favoring Hillary.

Michigan and Florida will be seated after she concedes. At this point it really wouldn't matter if they just counted them now because Obama's lead is so huge, but they aren't going to let them into the mix until it is clear they absolutely won 't affect the result in any way.

She's got a good arguement going into the DNC. She won all of the rust belt except for Obama's home state. She won NY, MA, CA and Florida. Anyone does that in the general election, they've won. That's a strong arguement to make with the Superdelegates, regardless of whether or not they actually count Florida and Michigan.

So I feel fairly certain this will be a fight right up to the convention...and I think she still has a chance.

No, she doesn't have a good argument for anybody except for republicans like you and she does not have a chance.

Jesus Christ, I know you people hate science, but is math a tool of the devil now too?

John McCain: He was against waterboarding before he was for it.
John McCain: He was for campaign finance reform before he ran for president.

Last Edited By: Cafu07 05-08-08 8:38 AM. Edited 3 times.

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Klark

#13

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Posts: 928

05-08-08 8:56 AM

Cafu07 wrote:
What are you talking about with the Obama can't win either stuff? Obama has already won. There's just a bunch of superdelegates out there that are waiting because they want to appear that they remained neutral until the end. Hillary is going down in this election, but that's no reason for them to piss off the Clintons when that could come back to bite them in the ass later.

Look at the math; neither can reach 2025 committed delegates without a large number of superdelegates. As for superdelegates for Obama hiding, I don't buy that. The DNC wants them to come out now and Obama would REALLY want them to come out now to close the campaign. If they are all ready committed, they would want to give Obama the win and the chance to save money for the general election. Piss off the Clintons? You are reaching for straws.

I can see superdelegates hanging on for bribes or just for the attention. It's sad but they are politicians.

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Zifnab

#14

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Posts: 2689

05-08-08 9:03 AM

Democrats should be careful otherwise Michigan could go red during the general election.

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Cafu07

#15

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Posts: 2023

05-08-08 9:06 AM

Klark wrote:

Cafu07 wrote:
What are you talking about with the Obama can't win either stuff? Obama has already won. There's just a bunch of superdelegates out there that are waiting because they want to appear that they remained neutral until the end. Hillary is going down in this election, but that's no reason for them to piss off the Clintons when that could come back to bite them in the ass later.

The DNC wants them to come out now and Obama would REALLY want them to come out now to close the campaign.

Who said that? The chairman of the DNC has said nothing about wanting those delegates to commit now.

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Cafu07

#16

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05-08-08 9:09 AM

Zifnab wrote:
Democrats should be careful otherwise Michigan could go red during the general election.

Lots of states could go red, and lots of states could go blue. What should the democrats be careful about and how should they be careful?

Michigan and Florida will be allowed to show up at the convention as soon as it's clear that Clinton can't use those votes to prolong her campaign.

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Klark

#17

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Posts: 928

05-08-08 9:25 AM

Cafu07 wrote:

Who said that? The chairman of the DNC has said nothing about wanting those delegates to commit now.

Democratic National Committee Chairman Howard Dean said the only way his party would lose the general election is if Democrats "lose to ourselves first" because they are not unified.
...
"There's no reason for folks not to make up their mind by the end of June as opposed to the end of August. And that would give us an extra two months to heal the party and to avoid having a really divisive convention," he said

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Cafu07

#18

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Posts: 2023

05-08-08 9:34 AM

Klark wrote:

Cafu07 wrote:

Who said that? The chairman of the DNC has said nothing about wanting those delegates to commit now.

Democratic National Committee Chairman Howard Dean said the only way his party would lose the general election is if Democrats "lose to ourselves first" because they are not unified.
...
"There's no reason for folks not to make up their mind by the end of June as opposed to the end of August. And that would give us an extra two months to heal the party and to avoid having a really divisive convention," he said

I think you need to check a calendar bud. You seem to be almost two months ahead of yourself.

Or should I give you the benefit of the doubt and assume you are just posting some evidence to support my point?

Last Edited By: Cafu07 05-08-08 9:40 AM. Edited 1 time.

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Klark

#19

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Posts: 928

05-08-08 9:42 AM

Cafu07 wrote:

Lots of states could go red, and lots of states could go blue. What should the democrats be careful about and how should they be careful?

There are a number of states that are clearly red or blue. The Republicans will win Texas and the Democrats will win New York. There are many states that, in past elections, have been balancing between the two parties. For example, in 2004, Kerry won Michigan by 3.5%. It's a big state (many electorial votes) and may go either way. There are a number of states like that - MI, PA, OH, CO, and FL. New Hampshire is also split between the two parties, but has very few electorial votes. People who are looking at the general election care mainly about which candidate would do best in the swing states.

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Fishbeak

#20

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Posts: 2506

05-08-08 10:04 AM

Man, several of you are like 2 months behind the curve.

It's been common knowledge for several months that the super delegates are going to decide the nominee. Where have you all been? Seriously, you should consider changing whatever media outlet you use if you're just now hearing this. Honestly I don't even think faux news is that far behind the curve. What media outlet do you use? I want to avoid in in the future.

And since it's obvious several of you are like two months behind; FL and MI are meaningless now. With FL and MI fully seated Hillary still does not have the juice to get the nomination. Because they are meaningless their delegations will be seated at the convention. The only issue I am hearing is will their delegates count for a full vote or a half a vote. The DNC might spank them by cutting their votes in half. The reports I am seeing say this will be announced in the next 48 hours.

Borofin's bitch

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ZydallonTrismegistus

#21

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Posts: 1340

05-08-08 10:05 AM

It's Good to be Germane

I can see why some folks would think Dean said he wanted them to decide now. This is back from April 18th:

http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2008/04/18/dean-i-need-a-decision-now/

An increasingly firm Howard Dean told CNN again Thursday that he needs superdelegates to say who they're for - and "I need them to say who they're for starting now."
"We cannot give up two or three months of active campaigning and healing time," the Democratic National Committee Chairman told CNN's Wolf Blitzer. "We've got to know who our nominee is."

I think he came out and "softened" that up later by adding the "end of June" because people (mainly Hillary folks I think) started bitching about him wanting the supers to declare before all the primaries were done.

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Aielman KajiraLiege

#22

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05-08-08 11:10 AM

Cafu07 wrote:

Who said that? The chairman of the DNC has said nothing about wanting those delegates to commit now.

Yeah...except that time when he did say he wanted them to commit...on April 18th. I believe he says "right now."

peace,
Aielman

"There are no stupid questions...but there certainly are a LOT of inquisitive idiots"

Husband, Father, Squisher of bugs.
aka Bret

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Cafu07

#23

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Posts: 2023

05-08-08 1:06 PM

Aielman KajiraLiege wrote:

Cafu07 wrote:

Who said that? The chairman of the DNC has said nothing about wanting those delegates to commit now.

Yeah...except that time when he did say he wanted them to commit...on April 18th. I believe he says "right now."

Well then, I believe you're wrong. He doesn't say "right now." If you're going to post a clip why don't you watch it yourself instead of relying on others people's commentary.

He says, "starting now" in the context of getting it resolved by June. He doesn't say "right now." It was in response to Blitzer asking him about getting it wrapped up by July 1, and he mentions getting it done by June several times.

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Cinabre

#24

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Posts: 3055

05-08-08 2:27 PM

Big Blue Cat in Warrior Garb

Fishbeak wrote:
Man, several of you are like 2 months behind the curve.

It's been common knowledge for several months that the super delegates are going to decide the nominee. Where have you all been? Seriously, you should consider changing whatever media outlet you use if you're just now hearing this. Honestly I don't even think faux news is that far behind the curve. What media outlet do you use? I want to avoid in in the future.

And since it's obvious several of you are like two months behind; FL and MI are meaningless now. With FL and MI fully seated Hillary still does not have the juice to get the nomination. Because they are meaningless their delegations will be seated at the convention. The only issue I am hearing is will their delegates count for a full vote or a half a vote. The DNC might spank them by cutting their votes in half. The reports I am seeing say this will be announced in the next 48 hours.

And your still missing the point. Forget the delegate count from Florida and Michigan. As I mentioned earlier, if Hillary ends up with more popular vote - which Florida and Michigan would likely give her - don't you think she then has an arguement that more people have actually voted for her and she should be the nominee? Neither of them can win on pledged delegates, of that I think we're all in agreement on. The point then, is how will the super-delegates decide. If she has more popular vote and throws in the "white working class" arguement, she'll have a valid arguement. The DNC though, can not give her the nomination, as to do so would eliminate the black vote for their party. They will not do that, so Obama will become the nominee and we'll have to see how many of Hillary's folks actually pull the McCain lever or just don't vote.

Many times in battle, one might lose their mind, their life, their soul. What makes them a Marine is that they entered combat knowing the price they might pay, and chose to enter it anyway.

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Fishbeak

#25

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05-08-08 6:36 PM

if Hillary ends up with more popular vote - which Florida and Michigan would likely give her

I think you misunderstood my mention of delegates. The actual count is meaningless. The reduction in their voting power is nothing more than a slap on the wrist from the DNC. Kind of spiteful if you ask me. And also just rumor at this point.

Cin, really wherever it is you're getting your news they have done you a disservice. This stuff has been common knowledge for literally months. Maybe that it's coming as a surprise to you now explains some things.

Hillary can not over take Obama in popular vote even with FL and MI* thrown in.

It's b

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Democratic Primaries from here

Democratic Primaries from here