I would like to think that Obama will, but I suspect Hillary will. I think the bitterness statement has hurt Obama (as well as the stupid bowling thing) and that he pissed off too much of the stereotypical ubran "steelworker" types (and probably did not eat enough cheesesteaks either).
The official Prexus message board that won't sell out.
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Who will take Pennsylvania?
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 Muerta |
Who will take Pennsylvania? |
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Posts: 2582 04-22-08 5:17 AM Legend in the making... |
I would like to think that Obama will, but I suspect Hillary will. I think the bitterness statement has hurt Obama (as well as the stupid bowling thing) and that he pissed off too much of the stereotypical ubran "steelworker" types (and probably did not eat enough cheesesteaks either).
My Life Summed Up on a Bumpersticker: Religion is for those who believe in Hell. Spirituality is for those who have already been there.
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Aielman KajiraLiege |
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Posts: 4606 04-22-08 7:08 AM |
Hillary is going to take it. The only question is how big. I'm going to laugh if it's a big double digit win which will cause the chaos in the dnc to
become even more frenzied.
peace, Aielman "Bush said that he now believes in Global warming...as a result...I'm not sure
anymore." - Lewis Black
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Morkenlar |
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Posts: 1891 04-22-08 7:28 AM |
Like I said in the other thread, I'm predicting Hilary by at least 5-10%. I think (and hope) it will be more. I'm voting this morning to make sure
mine is in (I'd hate to not count because I worked late and changing from independent to democrat was for nought). Obama has had several comments that
didn't sit well with people in PA, and his "those things don't matter" comment the day after the debate didn't help. Add in his
anti-gun-rights position, and PA doesn't think real highly of him, other than college kids. He will probably do well in Pittsburge and Philly, and get
trounced everywhere else.
Mork
"A government that robs Peter to pay Paul can always depend on the support of Paul" |
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Zifnab |
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Posts: 2639 04-22-08 8:27 AM |
I'm hoping for a double digit Hilary win.
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Fishbeak |
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Posts: 2331 04-22-08 9:44 AM |
Hillary by 9%.
Borofin's bitch
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Afmo |
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Posts: 2327 04-22-08 10:25 AM
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i think hillary takes it by at least 10%
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Lujack Dhrakoth |
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Posts: 486 04-22-08 11:12 AM |
Nader by 2%
Either way..we are all screwed... McCain, Obama and Hillary, the 3 stooges.. |
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Kayso Gnomehater |
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Posts: 4575 04-22-08 12:33 PM BANNED |
He will probably do well in Pittsburge and Philly, and get trounced everywhere else.
Which will prove the literal meaning of his remarks taken out of context and extrapolated for an additional meaning are true. Small town people really are bitter superstitious idiots. Hillary by 6%. |
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Zifnab |
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Posts: 2639 04-22-08 12:37 PM |
Not really. He's done better in big cities way before that gaft... It's his base.
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Morkenlar |
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Posts: 1891 04-22-08 9:08 PM |
Small town people really are bitter superstitious idiots.Right, Kayso. Because they couldn't POSSIBLY have different values or anything. So if they disagree, it must be because they are dumb or something.
Mork
"A government that robs Peter to pay Paul can always depend on the support of Paul" |
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Feydakin Rainsong |
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Posts: 5124 04-22-08 9:11 PM Wholly Shi'ite |
Dan Rooney, owner of the Steelers and registered Republican, is endorsing Obama. I'm sure that's significant, somehow.
A door is sometimes a jar, but a jar is never a door.
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 Cafu07 |
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Posts: 1869 04-22-08 9:25 PM |
I was thinking she would win by 10 percentage points. At 66% counted now she is up by 9, but I guess that will decrease since cities usually come in later.
A week or two ago I said that the most optimistic forecasts for Hillary Clinton had her taking 26 more delegates from PA than Obama which would still be insignificant considering his lead. It looks like she will take less than that. |
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Cafu07 |
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Posts: 1869 04-22-08 9:36 PM |
Next up is Indiana and North Carolina on May 6th.
Clinton will make a big push for Indiana, trying to come up with a victory that might award her more than a handful of delegates. She will fail and come away with another too-small win. Meanwhile, Obama will win North Carolina by a huge majority and most likely wipe away any delegate gains by Clinton in Pennsylvania and Indiana. After that, the rest of the states on the schedule are insignificant in the context of this race because they have very small amounts of delegates. |
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Afmo |
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Posts: 2327 04-22-08 9:49 PM
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the more important question now is can either candidate still win enough delegates for the lock?
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Fishbeak |
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Posts: 2331 04-22-08 9:51 PM |
To go a bit further than cafu...
Obama has 150+ delegate lead. Assume hillary nets 16 delegates tonight. She'll trail by 135-ish. Out of Indiana and NC Obama will win NC. IN is a toss up. Slight delegate edge to Obama. But the bad news is trailing by prolly 135-150 delegates there will only 400 or so delegates left and several solidly Obama states still out. According to the report I saw after NC and IN she'll need 80+% of the remaining delegates to over take Obama. With the way the dems divide delegates she'd need north of 90% of the popular vote. Any sign of those flying monkies yet? The only way Hillary wins is if she convinces the super delegates to overturn the primaries. If she succeeds the dems not only deserve to lose but it will most likely destroy the party.
Borofin's bitch
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Gandol teh Pirate |
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Posts: 2265 04-22-08 10:54 PM Time-traveling
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Why doesn't the selfish bitch drop out already? Hint: the answer is in the adjective of the previous sentence.
Borofin tells you:
Not you, jagoff... You are obviously lying in claiming ignorance of whom I was addressing. But lying is natural for you, isn't it? Go away you Bay area, anti-American leftist pos. |
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Afmo |
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Posts: 2327 04-22-08 11:03 PM
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she doesn't drop out because the race isn't over...
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fatesdefiance |
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Posts: 3106 04-22-08 11:05 PM Community Member |
It doesn't look like she's going to win by enough to make any kind of sizeable dent in Obama's lead. Winning by 10% just isn't going to do it
for her--she really needed 15-20% to gain any traction.
Thank goodness.
Hunter Tarryn Valewalker -- Twisted Fates
(Prexus - Retired) Nightshade Tarryn Valewalker -- Kingfisher Brigade EQ2 - Unrest Tarryn of Dale, Hunter -- Dies Irae LotRO - Meneldor |
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Gandol teh Pirate |
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Posts: 2265 04-23-08 1:41 AM Time-traveling
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Afmo, it's 4th and goal and she's on the wrong end of the football field. It's over.
Borofin tells you:
Not you, jagoff... You are obviously lying in claiming ignorance of whom I was addressing. But lying is natural for you, isn't it? Go away you Bay area, anti-American leftist pos. |
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Afmo |
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Posts: 2327 04-23-08 2:07 AM
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i agree, but she doesnt need to complete the hail mary...she just needs to run out the clock...
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Kayso Gnomehater |
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Posts: 4575 04-23-08 4:19 AM BANNED |
I'm torn (for lack of a better term) on the issue of Hillary dropping out now.
First, as she is clearly my third choice, I want to see her go for selfish reasons. Second, as many have pointed out, the longer this is delayed the more it hurts the Democrat's chance to field a winner. On the other hand, that fact might say more about the electorate being idiots than it does about Hillary being selfish to the detriment of her country. She has a chance to win, why should she have walk away because democratic voters are too stupid to support Obama over McCain if Hillary loses? |
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vizco |
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Posts: 3040 04-23-08 7:50 AM Raid Peon |
8-10% seemed to be the area where the spin doctors said she would stay in. She got 10%, so she stays in. My guess is she'll fight this out to the bitter
end.
I also think that the Obama Democrats who are claiming they would never vote for Hillary and vice versa are almost all lying (or deluding themselves), just like anyone-but-McCain Republicans are almost all lying (or deluding themselves). The upside of all this is that the fall race is going to be between two people who are disliked by major parts of their parties, which means we have an outside shot at some real news coverage, instead of just cheerleading.  Harmony of Souls : My Quiver All this science I don't understand; it's just my job five days a week. |
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Zifnab |
#22 | ||||
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Posts: 2639 04-23-08 8:44 AM |
Here's a scenario. Hillary loses the nomination and runs and an independant!
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Ersiusp |
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Posts: 2294 04-23-08 9:16 AM 1-900-Santa |
ugh. Everyone loses in that case. Come to think of it, we all lose no matter what. All the candidates are scum.
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Fishbeak |
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Posts: 2331 04-23-08 9:16 AM |
I am definitely one who will vote for McCain or not vote if hillary steals the nomination.
McCain is much closer to my position on most issues. Obama has my vote now on macro issues; leadership, character, the thought of being less devisive. The primary may end up being a good thing. Beating the clintons is no small task. I think Obama will be ready for the general after tangling with her.
Borofin's bitch
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Klark |
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Posts: 808 04-23-08 9:56 AM |
fatesdefiance wrote:Yup. She will claim this as a victory, but she really did not gain anything. Meanwhile, why at this stage is Obama losing by 10%? Neither candidate has any traction. This race is stagnant and I don't think the American people really care that much. Obama will win NC (yawn) and they will struggle in Indiana (yawn). Nothing will change by the convention. Can we just have the convention now and watch them bitch at each other for a big night before the vote? The only question is if she can twist the party elite enough to change the popular votes. The odds are small but still academically possible, so just have the elite vote now and get it over with. |
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Fishbeak |
#26 | ||||
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Posts: 2331 04-23-08 10:25 AM |
why at this stage is Obama losing by 10%?
Very good question. I wish someone could answer it. The best guess I have is that the negative campaigning is taking a toll, both his and hers, on Obama.
Borofin's bitch
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Aielman KajiraLiege |
#27 | ||||
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Posts: 4606 04-23-08 10:30 AM |
Klark wrote:That's not true. It is a victory for her...a fairly significant one as well. She carried most of the rust belt with double digit wins except for Illinois, and Indiania which has yet to be determined. She also took California and NY, and even though they didn't count she took Florida and Michigan. If she does well in Indiana and South Carolina, she's got a helluva case she can make with the superdelegates regarding the big ticket states and winning the general election. Which is why I think this fight will go all the way until August. peace, Aielman "There are no stupid questions...but there certainly are a LOT of inquisitive idiots" Husband, Father, Squisher of bugs.
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Fishbeak |
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Posts: 2331 04-23-08 10:47 AM |
She also took California and NY
However nobody thinks these states will be in play in the general. Oh and NY is her home state so that's a gimme. and even though they didn't count she took Florida and Michigan. Gee she really beat the hell out of the folks that weren't on the ticket in Michigan. Good show! Seriously who the hell thinks the Michigan vote means anything other than she's a weasel for not taking her name off the ballot like the rest of the candidates? Oh that's right the folks that are desperate to have her on the ticket in the general are praying for her victory. And her of course. If she does well in Indiana and South Carolina, she's got a helluva case she can make with the superdelegates regarding the big ticket states and winning the general election. No she doesn't. The goal post is delegates. And she doesn't have em. Plain, simple. Now she's trying to move the goal posts to popular vote - which of course she's also losing. But if you throw in FL and MI she gets close but will still come up short. Since she wont hit the real goal nor the second choice goal Clinton and the far right (I love how snuggly they are on this issue) have determined that neither of those metrics count and the real metric should be the warm fuzzy "but Hillary wins the big states" metric. Which of course is complete BS. Obama (at this writing) is putting several red states in play. He has a path to the WH without FL. He will carry NY and CA. And how quickly folks forget that he won the Texas caucus, though it take a person smarter than me to figure out how that relates to the Texas primary. My understanding is he came out of Texas with more delegates than Hillary. And lastly.... I still think there's a chance Obama can put some of the Bible Belt states into play in a general. He crushed Hillary in every Southern state. Huge ugly margins. What would that mean in the general? Maybe the GOP has to spend money in places like Mississippi and Alabama. Maybe Obama squeaks out a victory or tow in the deep South. Take one or tow of those states away from the GOP and it's over. The difference is Hillary solidifies the existing red/blue map (which of course is why all | ||||
